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Roy Wainer's avatar

I’m all for CSU, but your WACC seems way too low. The premium over U.S. Treasuries is minimal, and even if the beta is indeed low - say 0.7-0.8 - something in the 7%–9% range probably makes more sense.

That said, I also think using an LTM valuation is less appropriate. We’re already in Q1/26, and LTM still includes Q4/24. It would be more reasonable to think in terms of 2026 FCFA2S. If we back out the IRGA liability (which isn’t really a liability), we’re probably looking at roughly $2.2–$2.3 billion USD in 2026, which implies a multiple of around 16x.

IGP Paradox's avatar

Great breakdown of the VMS moat. Your point in section 7.3 about "institutional memory" is key—CSU’s 30-year database of failures is the ultimate defense against AI disruption, as "vibe-coding" can't replicate decades of niche legacy data.

However, struggling with the Mark Miller transition. If his Volaris model—reinvesting FCF locally rather than sending it to the parent—is now the lead strategy, doesn't his promotion signal the "death" of the classic CSU model? If every unit stops upstreaming cash to grow autonomously, does CSU eventually stop being a unified compounding machine and just become a loose collection of ETFs?

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